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welcome to the skeptic zone the podcast

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from Australia for science and reason

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[Music]

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[Applause]

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[Music]

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yes it's the skeptic zone podcast

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episode number 596 for the 15th of March

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2020 which--it saunders coming to you

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this week from Sydney Australia and it's

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a different world from even this time

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last week what a different world it is

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and as we know we don't look into the

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future we can guess I guess what's going

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to happen but yes welcome to the

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different world we will be covering the

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virus situation briefly briefly on

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today's skeptic zone I don't want to I

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don't want to fill up too many hours

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over the next weeks with it although who

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knows I thought I might give you other

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things to listen to we'll get that over

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and done with in the first segment which

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is the reading of a press release from

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the Australian skeptics about this

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weekend's mind-body-spirit festival in

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Sydney which despite advice still went

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ahead and the reason Australian skeptics

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were concerned enough to make a press

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release is that a mind-body-spirit

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festival would be a magnet for

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anti-vaxxers and people who have a very

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poor understanding of basic science such

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as germ theory and in the press release

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you'll hear us mention where you'll hear

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the mention of a medical diagnostic tool

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and this in to name it is the Metatron

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it's a Russian thing it's a it's a

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computer program that appears to show

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you a scan of your body and one of the

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claims made is it can zap viruses this

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is an appalling situation that these

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things have been peddled out over the

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last few years regardless and maybe

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after this is all settled down we can

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take some serious action against people

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who claim they can scan your body with

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Star Trek technology and zap viruses

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anyway that's coming up at the top of

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the show after that it's a special guest

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dick Smith the famous entrepreneur and

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Venturer in Australia he's the man who

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flew a helicopter around the world solo

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he flew a helicopter to the North Pole

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he piloted a balloon from Australia to

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New Zealand he has had a lifetime of

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adventures and he was one of the

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founders of Australian skeptics may not

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caught up with dick Smith a couple of

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weeks ago at the skeptics the Australian

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skeptics dinner meeting and it's a

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wide-ranging discussion with dick mostly

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about climate change and other matters

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like population following that it's

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logical fallacies worth Michelle Vickers

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MA this week Michelle looks at straw man

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in fact I think it's one of the very

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early ones I can remember hearing about

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straw man this week after that it's an

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update from our friend susan gerbic from

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guerrilla skepticism on wikipedia then

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to round off the show Michelle Franklin

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life is wild invasive species looking at

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horses yes sometimes we think about

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insects or rats or something but in

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Australia horses are an invasive species

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but now it's time for me to run out the

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door wash my hands wash my hands oh yes

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run downstairs have look in the fridge I

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wonder if there's any chocolate left

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it's a good old standby isn't it in fact

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I noticed the other day when I was in

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the supermarket keeping my distance from

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everybody but chocolate seems to be

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selling very well at the moment

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chocolate and toilet paper I think

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there's a message there well I do that I

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hope you enjoy the skeptic zone

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[Music]

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for many years as regular skeptic zone

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now listeners will know we've been

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reporting from the festival of

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mind/body/spirit or as we call it of

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course all together now mind body wallet

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now this is every six months here in

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Sydney and around the country major

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cities Brisbane Melbourne

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I think Adelaide - this is the first

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time for me personally in almost two

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decades that I will not be attending the

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mind body wallet this time around and

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there's a very good reason for this and

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I will read now from a press release

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issued by the Australian skeptics on

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March the 12th 2020 new-age

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pseudoscience is no match for kovat 19

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by Tim Mendham in a break with

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decades-long tradition members of

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Australian skeptics will not be

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attending this weekend's

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mind/body/spirit exhibition in Sydney's

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darling harbour due to the dangers of

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the spread of kovat 19 and the ignorant

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attitudes of some exhibitors attending

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would put our members at risk

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many of the pseudo scientific modalities

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on display reject basic scientific

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concepts such as germ theory and

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pathogen transmission we do not trust

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some of the exhibitors to understand the

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seriousness of the viral outbreak and

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the need for rigorous hygiene when

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exhibitors deny that there are such

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things as germs and they are opposed to

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vaccination then how could they offer

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anything that is not useless or

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dangerous some such as the rabidly

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anti-vaccine a group Australian

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vaccination risks network have even

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suggested that kovat 19 does not exist

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but is quote just a bad cold and quote

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in the past we have uncovered various

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medical testing machines which seem to

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do no real analysis and have no medical

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benefit at all given what we are now

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facing such equipment is nothing short

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of outrageous quote not attending

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mind/body/spirit is an extraordinary

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step for us in quote said Tim Mendham

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executive officer for Australian

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skeptics Inc quote many of our members

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have been regularly attending the

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exhibition of new-age and alternative

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products and services for years we have

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taken great interest in the goods on

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show and have had interesting

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discussions with various suppliers about

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the methodology and efficacy of what

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they are offering but because of the

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current situation with kovat 19 and the

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fact that at least some exhibitors have

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a minimal understanding or even

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antipathy to the scientific and medical

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issues involved we are forced to make

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this move note we are not asking that

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the exhibition be closed we just feel

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that the public should be aware that

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some of the exhibitors at

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mind/body/spirit have views that are

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diametrically opposed to the best

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evidence-based scientific and medical

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knowledge and an attitude that could be

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dangerous

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unquote the New Age is no match for a

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real medical threat of course one of the

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downsides about not going to mind body

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wallet this time around is hearing

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firsthand some of the outrageously

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dangerous advice that you can normally

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hear there but this time with the

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current situation with the coronavirus

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that covered 19 I just dread to think

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what sort of nonsense is being spouted

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there

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and that press release can be found at

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skeptics calm today you with a link in

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this week's show notes

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[Music]

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olice less habla Paola Dez de l'air

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Moses with other Buenos Aires in

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Argentina when the Kucha most podcasts

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Kucha mom I'm ok Kucha todo el mundo

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como the skeptic zone ojala pueden

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madeira visit Ana's algun dia esperamos

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con nuestra Ricky SEMA comida localize

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yeah podemos hablar un tango mientras

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tanto sugandha fruit and Eau de su dosa

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[Music]

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years may not spooky action at the

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look somewhere there's always great fun

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to bump into this dick Smith my dick how

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are you how are things well it's pretty

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good you certainly got out of retail at

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a good time didn't you yeah I was very

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lucky wasn't I maybe I can look into the

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future yes quite well indeed in fact

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would you would you think would you ever

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suggest anyone get into retail selling

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anything at this point in time no at the

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moment I've advised people to get out

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look Amazon is going to have an

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incredible effect because they just got

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such low overheads the only reason Jeff

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Bezos is the wealthiest person on earth

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as he knows a way of making money and

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employing the lowest number of people

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possible and he's good he got the little

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fingers wrapped around the government's

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- there with those subsidies in the US

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as well absolutely now he's very astute

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you have to hand it to him and of course

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what do you think why do you think

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people are slow to accept the the

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climate change information that they're

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confronted with why do they deny it or

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they go look I don't know about that I

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have a famous expression that is the

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human-powered of self-deluded is

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unlimited but the reason many people

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deny the climate change issue is that

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it's so complex and then also there's

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some very vocal people saying it's all

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rubbish it's all made up and that

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persuasive people and because of that

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coupling up it's interesting I've got

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three groups of friends I've got my

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middle of the range friends and they

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basically believe in human induced

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climate change then I'll get my left key

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friends who are utterly convinced but on

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the right side I've got my right-wing

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friends who are all climate change

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deniers now all of these people are

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genuine in their beliefs some are wrong

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of course but what just what you can do

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about it I think there's going to have

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to be some major crash some Hitler walk

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into Poland moment where we all have to

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do something otherwise it's going to be

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like the Frog being heated in the water

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we're not going to do anything do you

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think the coronavirus coronavirus

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incident could be something that

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promotes that

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first no I don't think so I think the

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coronavirus might have an effect on our

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economic system which I've always

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thought is going to crash at some time

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but when it comes to climate change no I

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thought the bush fires would have a real

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effect but they are now almost forgotten

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by many people now the rains have come

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everything's okay and one of the

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problems is many of the people who

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preach and talk about climate change

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make out as if it's going to be an easy

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problem to solve it is not going to be

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so David Attenborough is a hundred

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percent correct where he said it's going

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to require enormous sacrifice and no

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politician is game enough to get up and

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say we're all going to have to sacrifice

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well it mainly means a loss of job in

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certain sectors like mining and Industry

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it's going to be lost in those sectors

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yeah well or move the jobs it has to be

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planned see one of the problems is we

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sell a hundred billion dollars worth of

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fossil fuels every year now our economy

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will collapse without those sales so

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they have to be replaced with something

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personally I believe we should be

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looking at nuclear energy I'm Pro

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renewables but I don't believe the

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statement where people say renewables

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00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:45,410
are now cheaper than fossil fuels that's

276
00:12:49,620 --> 00:12:48,170
simply not true they are cheaper when

277
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:49,630
the Sun is out when the wind is blowing

278
00:12:55,420 --> 00:12:52,490
but because we don't have a low-cost

279
00:12:57,490 --> 00:12:55,430
method of storage they become very

280
00:12:59,590 --> 00:12:57,500
expensive when you look at say one year

281
00:13:01,600 --> 00:12:59,600
of output although if you look at the

282
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:01,610
lifetime of a nuclear plant and cleaning

283
00:13:05,530 --> 00:13:03,410
the cleanup and all the possibility of

284
00:13:08,710 --> 00:13:05,540
storage maybe that's more expensive than

285
00:13:11,319 --> 00:13:08,720
renewables no no I see the problem is

286
00:13:13,150 --> 00:13:11,329
the renewables are intermittent we don't

287
00:13:16,449 --> 00:13:13,160
have a successful way of storing them

288
00:13:20,560 --> 00:13:16,459
the battery price needs to come down 40

289
00:13:23,079 --> 00:13:20,570
times not 40 percent 40 times to be

290
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:23,089
competitive with fossil fuels how about

291
00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:25,370
the occasional gas powered plant I mean

292
00:13:28,900 --> 00:13:27,649
yes co2 but not as much no I don't

293
00:13:31,030 --> 00:13:28,910
accept that at all because we're

294
00:13:32,889 --> 00:13:31,040
doubling our population so if you change

295
00:13:35,170 --> 00:13:32,899
to gas we're going to have 50 percent

296
00:13:37,300 --> 00:13:35,180
amount of carbon but we're doubling our

297
00:13:39,790 --> 00:13:37,310
population we have one of the highest

298
00:13:41,350 --> 00:13:39,800
population growths in the developed

299
00:13:42,130 --> 00:13:41,360
world that means we're back where we

300
00:13:45,550 --> 00:13:42,140
started from

301
00:13:48,170 --> 00:13:45,560
no gas is not the way my pump

302
00:13:50,389 --> 00:13:48,180
bhadram no way that's the most dangerous

303
00:13:53,090 --> 00:13:50,399
form by you wouldn't want to live below

304
00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:53,100
a hydro dam because they collapse the

305
00:13:59,090 --> 00:13:56,490
worst one in the world is 25,000 died in

306
00:14:00,710 --> 00:13:59,100
China when a hydro dam collapse in

307
00:14:02,900 --> 00:14:00,720
America I think it was over a hundred

308
00:14:05,569 --> 00:14:02,910
there's no way that I'd want to live

309
00:14:07,759 --> 00:14:05,579
below a punch storage dam because of the

310
00:14:09,170 --> 00:14:07,769
risk of it collapsing and because she

311
00:14:10,519 --> 00:14:09,180
mentioned population growth there and

312
00:14:12,079 --> 00:14:10,529
that's one thing I've always liked about

313
00:14:15,199 --> 00:14:12,089
use you've been someone that's tried to

314
00:14:17,750 --> 00:14:15,209
promote a conversation and that's pretty

315
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:17,760
difficult I mean climate change is also

316
00:14:21,470 --> 00:14:19,410
a difficult one do you think population

317
00:14:24,170 --> 00:14:21,480
control is even harder than it's more

318
00:14:25,610 --> 00:14:24,180
important because everything every

319
00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:25,620
problem we have in the world today is

320
00:14:29,870 --> 00:14:27,690
harder to fix with more people and the

321
00:14:32,690 --> 00:14:29,880
fact that the United Nations has no plan

322
00:14:36,139 --> 00:14:32,700
about population we're going from 7 to

323
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:36,149
11 million people and it's so ridiculous

324
00:14:40,250 --> 00:14:38,010
to be concentrating on climate change

325
00:14:42,769 --> 00:14:40,260
when no one's saying anything about the

326
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:42,779
population growth one of the problems is

327
00:14:47,180 --> 00:14:44,970
we have about 3 billion people who are

328
00:14:49,009 --> 00:14:47,190
really poor in this world they want to

329
00:14:51,019 --> 00:14:49,019
raise their standard of living they

330
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:51,029
start using fossil fuels like we have

331
00:14:54,949 --> 00:14:52,890
well the whole world will be destroyed

332
00:14:58,280 --> 00:14:54,959
even quicker so do you think this is

333
00:15:00,079 --> 00:14:58,290
like a sort of economic pyramid scheme

334
00:15:01,790 --> 00:15:00,089
by having more people like it's easy to

335
00:15:03,500 --> 00:15:01,800
have a economic growth when you add more

336
00:15:05,780 --> 00:15:03,510
people to the mix I absolutely right

337
00:15:08,569 --> 00:15:05,790
it's a Ponzi scheme and one of the yeah

338
00:15:10,300 --> 00:15:08,579
one of the problems is that our economic

339
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:10,310
system the one I've done so well out of

340
00:15:15,439 --> 00:15:13,050
requires perpetual growth now that's

341
00:15:17,660 --> 00:15:15,449
impossible it's a finite world so one

342
00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:17,670
day there'll be a major correction and

343
00:15:21,980 --> 00:15:19,890
we'll have to live within our means that

344
00:15:23,449 --> 00:15:21,990
doesn't seem to be happening in the

345
00:15:25,910 --> 00:15:23,459
immediate future but it will in the

346
00:15:27,889 --> 00:15:25,920
long-term future now I when you're

347
00:15:29,180 --> 00:15:27,899
growing up and when your dad was doing

348
00:15:30,980 --> 00:15:29,190
business and various things what was the

349
00:15:32,300 --> 00:15:30,990
interest rate back then is it natural to

350
00:15:34,460 --> 00:15:32,310
have about one or two three percent

351
00:15:36,350 --> 00:15:34,470
interest is that the actual like the 70s

352
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:36,360
in the 80s that was really weirdly high

353
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:38,130
interest wasn't it yeah absolutely look

354
00:15:43,310 --> 00:15:40,410
when I sold Dick Smith electronics must

355
00:15:44,630 --> 00:15:43,320
have been nearly over 30 years ago the

356
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:44,640
interest rate we were getting in the

357
00:15:50,540 --> 00:15:47,610
bank was 18% Wow and someone who tried

358
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:50,550
to borrow money was paying 28%

359
00:15:54,590 --> 00:15:52,890
so absolutely saving I don't quite

360
00:15:57,150 --> 00:15:54,600
understand now with the interest rate

361
00:15:59,850 --> 00:15:57,160
being so low I think it's moving us

362
00:16:01,889 --> 00:15:59,860
Ward's some enormous collapse because at

363
00:16:03,300 --> 00:16:01,899
the moment you can in the government

364
00:16:04,980 --> 00:16:03,310
just lowers the interest rate and that

365
00:16:07,259 --> 00:16:04,990
means we can keep growing when it's

366
00:16:11,129 --> 00:16:07,269
impossible well you can't go much below

367
00:16:13,499 --> 00:16:11,139
zero or you can effect amazing in Japan

368
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:13,509
you actually have to pay to put your

369
00:16:18,150 --> 00:16:15,370
money in the bank so they are below zero

370
00:16:19,860 --> 00:16:18,160
they're in - rates of interest define

371
00:16:21,420 --> 00:16:19,870
amazing amazing as far as population

372
00:16:22,740 --> 00:16:21,430
control is there any country in the

373
00:16:25,079 --> 00:16:22,750
world that is what you would consider

374
00:16:26,730 --> 00:16:25,089
best practice in - maybe looking into

375
00:16:28,379 --> 00:16:26,740
their growth of their population oh yeah

376
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:28,389
there's lots of countries first of all I

377
00:16:32,790 --> 00:16:30,250
don't believe in population control at

378
00:16:34,829 --> 00:16:32,800
all what I've said is that we need to

379
00:16:36,689 --> 00:16:34,839
have a population plan I've always said

380
00:16:38,730 --> 00:16:36,699
parents should have the number of

381
00:16:40,470 --> 00:16:38,740
children they can give a good life to we

382
00:16:42,420 --> 00:16:40,480
don't have a problem from birthrate in

383
00:16:44,699 --> 00:16:42,430
Australia it's because of enormous

384
00:16:47,009 --> 00:16:44,709
immigration but first of all what

385
00:16:49,769 --> 00:16:47,019
countries are showing the way Japan is

386
00:16:52,619 --> 00:16:49,779
going from 120 million to 90 million by

387
00:16:54,420 --> 00:16:52,629
2050 and Italy is dropping its

388
00:16:56,429 --> 00:16:54,430
population even though it's Catholic

389
00:16:58,230 --> 00:16:56,439
obviously they don't take any notice of

390
00:17:00,629 --> 00:16:58,240
the Pope fair enough in Germany the

391
00:17:02,639 --> 00:17:00,639
population is basically stabilized so

392
00:17:04,860 --> 00:17:02,649
there are some very good examples in the

393
00:17:07,319 --> 00:17:04,870
world in the developed world we're the

394
00:17:10,559 --> 00:17:07,329
worst possible example we have a growth

395
00:17:13,529 --> 00:17:10,569
rate of 1.6% per year which is going to

396
00:17:15,539 --> 00:17:13,539
take us to 100 million people at the end

397
00:17:18,329 --> 00:17:15,549
of the century when our grandkids will

398
00:17:19,860 --> 00:17:18,339
be alive now no one believes a hundred

399
00:17:22,289 --> 00:17:19,870
million is a sensible number for

400
00:17:24,179 --> 00:17:22,299
Australia yes I mean it'll be much what

401
00:17:26,579 --> 00:17:24,189
it'll be like Taiwan all along the east

402
00:17:28,860 --> 00:17:26,589
coast yes it will be and we're an arid

403
00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:28,870
country and it's probably possible to

404
00:17:32,580 --> 00:17:30,370
have a hundred million but we'll end up

405
00:17:34,529 --> 00:17:32,590
like the United States they have 50

406
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:34,539
million people that are poor that are on

407
00:17:39,539 --> 00:17:36,610
food stamps that are on the dole they

408
00:17:41,490 --> 00:17:39,549
can't provide enough jobs for 330

409
00:17:43,380 --> 00:17:41,500
million they've gone past the sweet

410
00:17:45,180 --> 00:17:43,390
point but how do you feel about the

411
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:45,190
universal allowance that everybody gets

412
00:17:48,029 --> 00:17:46,450
a certain amount of money from the

413
00:17:49,649 --> 00:17:48,039
government all the time regardless how

414
00:17:51,419 --> 00:17:49,659
do you feel about that scheme yes the

415
00:17:53,159 --> 00:17:51,429
universal wage I think we'll have to

416
00:17:55,590 --> 00:17:53,169
move to something like that one of our

417
00:17:59,549 --> 00:17:55,600
problems is that since the second world

418
00:18:02,159 --> 00:17:59,559
war the growth we've had is by consuming

419
00:18:05,190 --> 00:18:02,169
more up until the Second World War the

420
00:18:08,340 --> 00:18:05,200
growth was used to reduce working hours

421
00:18:10,260 --> 00:18:08,350
but now what we do is we the growth

422
00:18:12,690 --> 00:18:10,270
would end up with unemployment so we

423
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:12,700
keep people working long hours but then

424
00:18:17,190 --> 00:18:15,010
we make more and more stuff so if you go

425
00:18:19,170 --> 00:18:17,200
into a typical shopping center half the

426
00:18:21,390 --> 00:18:19,180
stuff there is rubbish it's not needed

427
00:18:23,670 --> 00:18:21,400
but if we stop buying it the whole

428
00:18:26,130 --> 00:18:23,680
economy will collapse you mentioned

429
00:18:26,820 --> 00:18:26,140
before I mentioned a Ponzi scheme that's

430
00:18:29,550 --> 00:18:26,830
what it is

431
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:29,560
so we need to learn to live within our

432
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:33,730
means it's one world until we use 1.8

433
00:18:37,980 --> 00:18:35,770
times the world's resources every year

434
00:18:39,690 --> 00:18:37,990
now and it's pretty obvious that can't

435
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:39,700
go on for very long and you've obviously

436
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:41,170
spoken to a couple of politicians

437
00:18:44,580 --> 00:18:42,730
throughout your years and they just

438
00:18:46,500 --> 00:18:44,590
don't want to get into this it's just a

439
00:18:48,510 --> 00:18:46,510
it's a noodley horrible box of worms

440
00:18:50,700 --> 00:18:48,520
it's not so you're right too hard no not

441
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:50,710
even the Greens the Greens don't have a

442
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:53,170
population policy really absolutely no

443
00:18:58,140 --> 00:18:56,410
it's too hard for politicians because if

444
00:19:00,840 --> 00:18:58,150
you start talking about population

445
00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:00,850
number one you've got a talk of of

446
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:03,370
giving people control of their of

447
00:19:07,770 --> 00:19:06,010
conception because you go to Africa

448
00:19:09,360 --> 00:19:07,780
where the mothers are having four or

449
00:19:11,220 --> 00:19:09,370
five kids they don't want four or five

450
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:11,230
but they can there's no way they don't

451
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:13,210
have contraception so that's an

452
00:19:17,190 --> 00:19:15,010
important thing we should be telling

453
00:19:19,230 --> 00:19:17,200
Australians first of all birth rate

454
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:19,240
we're okay but we shouldn't be bringing

455
00:19:24,570 --> 00:19:21,970
in this huge number of immigrants all

456
00:19:26,790 --> 00:19:24,580
the time because in the end there won't

457
00:19:28,740 --> 00:19:26,800
be enough jobs and when you end up with

458
00:19:31,050 --> 00:19:28,750
generations not having a job that's a

459
00:19:32,820 --> 00:19:31,060
problem and it's like it's a difficult

460
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:32,830
conversation to have but someone should

461
00:19:37,140 --> 00:19:34,690
have the conversation pick a number

462
00:19:38,550 --> 00:19:37,150
after wide consultation and stick with

463
00:19:40,530 --> 00:19:38,560
it is that what to do I'm Pro

464
00:19:42,780 --> 00:19:40,540
immigration it's what's made Australia

465
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:42,790
such a fantastic place but it's sensible

466
00:19:47,580 --> 00:19:44,770
numbers our long-term average has been

467
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:47,590
75 thousand a year if we went back to

468
00:19:53,010 --> 00:19:50,050
that we'd stabilize our population at 30

469
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:53,020
million that would be sensible we think

470
00:19:55,860 --> 00:19:54,730
it's great talking to you again and what

471
00:19:58,350 --> 00:19:55,870
are you the most interested in hearing

472
00:20:00,270 --> 00:19:58,360
dr. Mann talk about tonight well I'm

473
00:20:01,890 --> 00:20:00,280
gonna be interested I've got lots of

474
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:01,900
right-wing friends who a complete

475
00:20:05,700 --> 00:20:04,090
climate change deniers hey did you

476
00:20:08,700 --> 00:20:05,710
actually know Bob Santa Maria

477
00:20:11,610 --> 00:20:08,710
I didn't - coca I'm sure he would have

478
00:20:13,830 --> 00:20:11,620
been a denier look I'm not a I'm not a

479
00:20:16,019 --> 00:20:13,840
person who has qualifications I use

480
00:20:17,909 --> 00:20:16,029
common sense and I ask lots of advice

481
00:20:19,769 --> 00:20:17,919
and I'm pretty well convinced that

482
00:20:21,990 --> 00:20:19,779
humans are affecting the climate and

483
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:22,000
it's going to be all bad from here if we

484
00:20:27,029 --> 00:20:24,010
don't do something that's great talking

485
00:20:28,950 --> 00:20:27,039
again thank you for me with the

486
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:28,960
president tonight who's Judy is - what

487
00:20:33,330 --> 00:20:30,250
is your duty tonight if you got me oh

488
00:20:35,070 --> 00:20:33,340
yes I am I've been put to work by Kim

489
00:20:37,220 --> 00:20:35,080
our executive officer and I'm kicking

490
00:20:40,139 --> 00:20:37,230
the names off the list as people arrived

491
00:20:41,700 --> 00:20:40,149
70 people tonight is it yeah yeah really

492
00:20:44,279 --> 00:20:41,710
good turnout I'm very happy with it yeah

493
00:20:46,139 --> 00:20:44,289
so he's one of the 97% of climatologists

494
00:20:48,690 --> 00:20:46,149
who do believe the earth is changing due

495
00:20:50,580 --> 00:20:48,700
to man-made efforts why do you think

496
00:20:53,010 --> 00:20:50,590
people are slow to accept this news or

497
00:20:57,110 --> 00:20:53,020
don't want to accept this news well I

498
00:20:59,909 --> 00:20:57,120
think it it would in it will entail

499
00:21:02,250 --> 00:20:59,919
major change and major planning and not

500
00:21:04,350 --> 00:21:02,260
that it can't be done but I think people

501
00:21:08,130 --> 00:21:04,360
are very very resistant to that sort of

502
00:21:10,860 --> 00:21:08,140
change and I was actually thinking about

503
00:21:14,100 --> 00:21:10,870
some not a comparable but not a

504
00:21:16,830 --> 00:21:14,110
comparable situation but a a similar

505
00:21:22,380 --> 00:21:16,840
situation with the hole in the ozone

506
00:21:28,409 --> 00:21:22,390
layer and and how once it was determined

507
00:21:31,139 --> 00:21:28,419
it was accepted and Industry accepted it

508
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:31,149
and politicians accepted it and steps

509
00:21:37,660 --> 00:21:33,770
were taken to phase out CFC

510
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:37,670
and it was a no-brainer and the the

511
00:21:45,790 --> 00:21:41,930
necessary action was taken and I why

512
00:21:48,580 --> 00:21:45,800
this is so different it's a bit of a

513
00:21:52,980 --> 00:21:48,590
mystery really but except that it's more

514
00:21:57,010 --> 00:21:52,990
complicated and there are many many more

515
00:21:58,720 --> 00:21:57,020
serious sort of industrial interests

516
00:22:04,930 --> 00:21:58,730
such as the coal industry working

517
00:22:06,550 --> 00:22:04,940
against it yes why do you think people

518
00:22:07,990 --> 00:22:06,560
are a bit slow to accept this the

519
00:22:10,810 --> 00:22:08,000
climate science or they just don't want

520
00:22:14,500 --> 00:22:10,820
it look I think there's so many

521
00:22:17,850 --> 00:22:14,510
different reasons I think one of the big

522
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:17,860
ones these days that's particularly

523
00:22:23,380 --> 00:22:21,050
personal at the moment is that there is

524
00:22:26,310 --> 00:22:23,390
a whole lot of alternative facts

525
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:26,320
available to them so people are I guess

526
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:29,450
if they're that way inclined or if

527
00:22:34,180 --> 00:22:31,850
somebody misson forms them and sets them

528
00:22:37,060 --> 00:22:34,190
on a trajectory of researching things

529
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:37,070
online in that direction then they'll be

530
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:39,410
able to confirm those false you know

531
00:22:44,710 --> 00:22:41,690
ideas and find the facts that support

532
00:22:46,180 --> 00:22:44,720
whatever have you ever been looking up

533
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:46,190
something and gone down the wrong way

534
00:22:50,350 --> 00:22:48,650
rabbit-hole online I mean I know it

535
00:22:51,490 --> 00:22:50,360
dietary stuff I was sucked in for a

536
00:22:53,110 --> 00:22:51,500
while with the whole gluten thing

537
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:53,120
because I was reading men oh that makes

538
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:55,010
sense until I realized I was reading a

539
00:22:59,230 --> 00:22:57,410
page that was in no way scientific yeah

540
00:23:01,360 --> 00:22:59,240
I've been down the rabbit hole many

541
00:23:03,700 --> 00:23:01,370
times many many times

542
00:23:06,810 --> 00:23:03,710
fortunately most of the time I'm able to

543
00:23:09,310 --> 00:23:06,820
call my way back to reality to the light

544
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:09,320
but you know that that's quite tricky

545
00:23:15,610 --> 00:23:11,330
sometimes you know you actually need to

546
00:23:17,170 --> 00:23:15,620
be vigilant in the way that you you know

547
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:17,180
look at the information that's available

548
00:23:22,420 --> 00:23:19,970
and if you're surrounded by other people

549
00:23:24,790 --> 00:23:22,430
who are also down that rabbit hole then

550
00:23:27,580 --> 00:23:24,800
you're far less likely to be inclined to

551
00:23:29,740 --> 00:23:27,590
you know to try to get out and and

552
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:29,750
look at you know reality so people

553
00:23:33,250 --> 00:23:31,010
always making fun of critical thinking

554
00:23:34,779 --> 00:23:33,260
but never at any time except maybe the

555
00:23:36,010 --> 00:23:34,789
you know maybe that middle-age just

556
00:23:37,630 --> 00:23:36,020
could have used a bit of it but you know

557
00:23:39,789 --> 00:23:37,640
we could probably critical think it's

558
00:23:41,409 --> 00:23:39,799
more important than ever now I think

559
00:23:43,570 --> 00:23:41,419
it's yeah I think it's always been

560
00:23:47,140 --> 00:23:43,580
important and there's always been

561
00:23:51,340 --> 00:23:47,150
different elements in society that have

562
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:51,350
tried to suppress you know people who do

563
00:23:54,250 --> 00:23:53,330
think critically and challenge that the

564
00:23:55,870 --> 00:23:54,260
status quo

565
00:23:57,580 --> 00:23:55,880
there's better the interests you know

566
00:23:59,769 --> 00:23:57,590
there's people who don't want certain

567
00:24:02,200 --> 00:23:59,779
facts to come to light and you know

568
00:24:04,269 --> 00:24:02,210
that's it's the eternal challenge to

569
00:24:09,389 --> 00:24:04,279
remain vigilant against those those

570
00:24:14,019 --> 00:24:11,769
around good to see you here today it's a

571
00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:14,029
big night of politically charged climate

572
00:24:17,590 --> 00:24:16,130
action well it shouldn't be politically

573
00:24:19,450 --> 00:24:17,600
charged it's a scientific question

574
00:24:21,399 --> 00:24:19,460
people who make it political are wrong

575
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:21,409
yes and which is what I've been asking

576
00:24:24,940 --> 00:24:23,090
people why do you think people are so

577
00:24:26,380 --> 00:24:24,950
slow to accept accept the scientific

578
00:24:28,330 --> 00:24:26,390
data and what why do you think they

579
00:24:30,639 --> 00:24:28,340
don't want to well it's a psychological

580
00:24:33,669 --> 00:24:30,649
question I think but I have some

581
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:33,679
hypotheses about that I think first of

582
00:24:37,060 --> 00:24:35,570
all because people don't want what don't

583
00:24:38,740 --> 00:24:37,070
want it to be true because you know if

584
00:24:40,649 --> 00:24:38,750
the reality is hard and I think people

585
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:40,659
generally are not quick to accept

586
00:24:46,180 --> 00:24:44,570
difficult truths the other thing is you

587
00:24:48,399 --> 00:24:46,190
will find that most of the people who

588
00:24:51,549 --> 00:24:48,409
don't accept climate science tend to be

589
00:24:53,889 --> 00:24:51,559
older and there might be a little bit of

590
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:53,899
guilt in that you know the kind of world

591
00:24:58,269 --> 00:24:55,250
that we've created and we are leaving

592
00:24:59,830 --> 00:24:58,279
our children is not as good as for

593
00:25:02,289 --> 00:24:59,840
example the previous generation has left

594
00:25:05,740 --> 00:25:02,299
us so I think there is definitely an

595
00:25:06,630 --> 00:25:05,750
element of that but in the end I don't

596
00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:06,640
know that there is actually

597
00:25:11,919 --> 00:25:09,289
psychological research about that so I

598
00:25:13,810 --> 00:25:11,929
don't know whether my hypothesis holds

599
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:13,820
water or not number of people have said

600
00:25:17,710 --> 00:25:15,890
that people don't trust experts as much

601
00:25:19,389 --> 00:25:17,720
because they feel they can do their own

602
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:19,399
research on the web and that can lead

603
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:20,330
them anywhere

604
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:22,850
I actually think first of all I think

605
00:25:27,810 --> 00:25:24,210
it's a new phenomenon

606
00:25:29,730 --> 00:25:27,820
science is still by and large really

607
00:25:31,500 --> 00:25:29,740
trusted I mean there's surveys that are

608
00:25:33,570 --> 00:25:31,510
done about what you know what kind of

609
00:25:36,450 --> 00:25:33,580
institutions do you trust in scientific

610
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:36,460
institutions in science in general or

611
00:25:41,159 --> 00:25:38,770
for example scientists as a profession

612
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:41,169
it's generally very highly trusted in

613
00:25:44,940 --> 00:25:43,690
all the surveys around the world so it's

614
00:25:46,169 --> 00:25:44,950
not I don't think it's actually true

615
00:25:48,029 --> 00:25:46,179
that scientists are not trust by their

616
00:25:49,350 --> 00:25:48,039
trusted but all experts are not trusted

617
00:25:51,450 --> 00:25:49,360
but they're definitely not trusted as

618
00:25:53,610 --> 00:25:51,460
much as they used to be and I think

619
00:25:55,110 --> 00:25:53,620
actually the climate debate is part of

620
00:25:57,360 --> 00:25:55,120
that it's not I think it's a course not

621
00:26:00,350 --> 00:25:57,370
an effect here what happened is that

622
00:26:02,669 --> 00:26:00,360
polit for political reasons people

623
00:26:04,289 --> 00:26:02,679
making it appear as if climate

624
00:26:06,120 --> 00:26:04,299
scientists have an agenda and they're

625
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:06,130
not being honest and I think that's

626
00:26:10,740 --> 00:26:09,010
creating that kind of less less trust of

627
00:26:12,779 --> 00:26:10,750
experts especially expertise in climate

628
00:26:13,919 --> 00:26:12,789
science climate science another issue

629
00:26:15,779 --> 00:26:13,929
you've been across which is a bit

630
00:26:17,430 --> 00:26:15,789
different with the coronavirus do you

631
00:26:19,590 --> 00:26:17,440
think the effect of that only community

632
00:26:24,060 --> 00:26:19,600
might affect the anti-vaxxer at all

633
00:26:26,070 --> 00:26:24,070
either way no you think they'll still be

634
00:26:27,390 --> 00:26:26,080
sauce of everything no fine they'll find

635
00:26:29,220 --> 00:26:27,400
something you know it's likely like the

636
00:26:32,430 --> 00:26:29,230
you know mercury okay so you know

637
00:26:35,190 --> 00:26:32,440
mercury was taken out of Excel vaccines

638
00:26:37,230 --> 00:26:35,200
in 2001 I think they're still talking

639
00:26:38,789 --> 00:26:37,240
about it as if it's there and all they

640
00:26:41,010 --> 00:26:38,799
found something else you know it's a

641
00:26:42,570 --> 00:26:41,020
no-no that they're against vaccines

642
00:26:44,330 --> 00:26:42,580
they're not against something about the

643
00:26:46,950 --> 00:26:44,340
vaccines their gains vaccines and

644
00:26:50,299 --> 00:26:46,960
they'll find something and of course

645
00:26:52,770 --> 00:26:50,309
there's already you know the normal

646
00:26:54,659 --> 00:26:52,780
conspiracy here is going around yes it's

647
00:26:56,430 --> 00:26:54,669
manufactured it's the you know big big

648
00:26:58,649 --> 00:26:56,440
pharma created if the Chinese created it

649
00:27:16,450 --> 00:26:58,659
whatever and I'm sure they ante the

650
00:27:22,340 --> 00:27:19,820
calling all skeptics or listeners the

651
00:27:24,710 --> 00:27:22,350
eleven or near Glasgow are already

652
00:27:27,379 --> 00:27:24,720
planning to visit something then you're

653
00:27:30,529 --> 00:27:27,389
in luck because Glasgow skeptics have

654
00:27:32,539 --> 00:27:30,539
got your Monday nights sorted we are

655
00:27:34,639 --> 00:27:32,549
committed to filling up every available

656
00:27:37,730 --> 00:27:34,649
Monday night talks on science and

657
00:27:39,980 --> 00:27:37,740
skepticism past speakers include Eugenie

658
00:27:42,289 --> 00:27:39,990
Scott Jerry Coyne make up Marshall Nate

659
00:27:45,470 --> 00:27:42,299
Phelps tormund Cecil from cognitive

660
00:27:47,659 --> 00:27:45,480
dissonance PZ Myers Richard Wiseman EC

661
00:27:50,239 --> 00:27:47,669
drilling Noah Heath and Eli from the

662
00:27:52,580 --> 00:27:50,249
scathing atheist Simon Singh Rebecca

663
00:27:55,489 --> 00:27:52,590
Watson and a multitude of local

664
00:27:57,409 --> 00:27:55,499
academics and skeptics there's literally

665
00:27:59,539 --> 00:27:57,419
nothing better you can do on a Monday

666
00:28:01,940 --> 00:27:59,549
night in Glasgow it doesn't involve

667
00:28:03,919 --> 00:28:01,950
taking your clothes off so come join us

668
00:28:06,139 --> 00:28:03,929
we've also got a vibrant online

669
00:28:08,060 --> 00:28:06,149
community you can find us on Facebook

670
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:08,070
Twitter and get involved with the

671
00:28:13,620 --> 00:28:11,129
discussion Glasgow skeptics self-help

672
00:28:36,460 --> 00:28:13,630
for your brain

673
00:28:38,380 --> 00:28:36,470
[Music]

674
00:28:41,150 --> 00:28:38,390
logical fallacies

675
00:28:44,310 --> 00:28:41,160
[Music]

676
00:28:46,380 --> 00:28:44,320
what are the logical fallacies and why

677
00:28:50,490 --> 00:28:46,390
is it important that critical thinkers

678
00:28:53,430 --> 00:28:50,500
should know about them a logical fallacy

679
00:28:55,020 --> 00:28:53,440
is an error we can make in reasoning but

680
00:28:58,790 --> 00:28:55,030
it usually crops up when we are

681
00:29:01,590 --> 00:28:58,800
discussing or arguing our point of view

682
00:29:03,870 --> 00:29:01,600
some people might even knowingly use

683
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:03,880
them to try and score cheap points in an

684
00:29:08,460 --> 00:29:04,570
argument

685
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:08,470
due to intellectual laziness they are

686
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:11,050
traps we can fall into but if we know

687
00:29:15,570 --> 00:29:13,330
what to look out for we can spot them

688
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:15,580
when they occur and stop ourselves from

689
00:29:24,660 --> 00:29:20,890
using them this week we'll look at straw

690
00:29:27,570 --> 00:29:24,670
man this is when we substitute a

691
00:29:31,250 --> 00:29:27,580
person's actual position or argument

692
00:29:33,660 --> 00:29:31,260
with a distorted exaggerated or

693
00:29:36,870 --> 00:29:33,670
misrepresented version of their position

694
00:29:39,710 --> 00:29:36,880
or point of view a straw man or a figure

695
00:29:42,990 --> 00:29:39,720
made out of straw is easy to burn down

696
00:29:45,540 --> 00:29:43,000
it is far easier to attack something

697
00:29:48,270 --> 00:29:45,550
weak even if it has nothing to do with

698
00:29:50,210 --> 00:29:48,280
what your opponent is trying to say than

699
00:29:53,910 --> 00:29:50,220
to attack a strong argument

700
00:29:56,550 --> 00:29:53,920
she said she briefly saw something that

701
00:29:59,100 --> 00:29:56,560
appeared light and creepy and she

702
00:30:01,650 --> 00:29:59,110
couldn't figure out what it was why

703
00:30:04,980 --> 00:30:01,660
would she resort to ghosts as an

704
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:04,990
explanation the original person did not

705
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:07,210
actually state that she thought she saw

706
00:30:11,010 --> 00:30:08,170
a ghost

707
00:30:13,380 --> 00:30:11,020
her point has been taken further and

708
00:30:17,250 --> 00:30:13,390
built-up into something more extreme

709
00:30:19,830 --> 00:30:17,260
that is considered nonsense it's much

710
00:30:22,650 --> 00:30:19,840
easier to just knock down a suggestion

711
00:30:24,510 --> 00:30:22,660
that a ghost appeared that to delve into

712
00:30:27,180 --> 00:30:24,520
the possible causes of what was

713
00:30:30,740 --> 00:30:27,190
experienced especially if no

714
00:30:33,060 --> 00:30:30,750
explanations can be provided by

715
00:30:35,700 --> 00:30:33,070
misrepresenting the original claim it

716
00:30:38,850 --> 00:30:35,710
can then be dismissed outright rather

717
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:38,860
than addressed the government is hiding

718
00:30:43,740 --> 00:30:41,290
the fact that aliens are living on earth

719
00:30:45,410 --> 00:30:43,750
that Air Force testing ranges are

720
00:30:48,420 --> 00:30:45,420
off-limits and highly guarded is

721
00:30:51,990 --> 00:30:48,430
evidence that aliens are being held

722
00:30:54,159 --> 00:30:52,000
there of course the air force range is

723
00:30:56,950 --> 00:30:54,169
off-limits and highly guarded

724
00:30:59,830 --> 00:30:56,960
this is true no matter what country

725
00:31:02,019 --> 00:30:59,840
you're in but this fact has nothing to

726
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:02,029
do with whether or not aliens or

727
00:31:07,690 --> 00:31:04,210
anything else are being kept a secret

728
00:31:10,930 --> 00:31:07,700
you skeptics say you can test my psychic

729
00:31:14,289 --> 00:31:10,940
abilities but your tests are impossible

730
00:31:16,870 --> 00:31:14,299
to pass I never said I was 100 percent

731
00:31:19,269 --> 00:31:16,880
accurate this excuse from people

732
00:31:21,909 --> 00:31:19,279
claiming psychic powers in order to not

733
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:21,919
be tested is one we've heard again and

734
00:31:27,370 --> 00:31:24,610
again over the decades

735
00:31:29,259 --> 00:31:27,380
skeptics never impose a condition of

736
00:31:32,500 --> 00:31:29,269
being a hundred percent accurate in a

737
00:31:34,509 --> 00:31:32,510
test of paranormal powers our real

738
00:31:36,460 --> 00:31:34,519
position is that we will test someone

739
00:31:39,940 --> 00:31:36,470
based on what they say their success

740
00:31:42,789 --> 00:31:39,950
rate is maybe they only claim seventy

741
00:31:47,049 --> 00:31:42,799
five percent accuracy that's fine

742
00:31:49,389 --> 00:31:47,059
we can test for that by saying we insist

743
00:31:51,940 --> 00:31:49,399
on a hundred percent they are using a

744
00:31:54,549 --> 00:31:51,950
totally exaggerated and false condition

745
00:31:58,960 --> 00:31:54,559
of a test to make it appear that

746
00:32:01,990 --> 00:31:58,970
skeptics are unreasonable many so-called

747
00:32:05,230 --> 00:32:02,000
psychics will look for any excuse not to

748
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:05,240
take the skeptics challenge but you

749
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:07,730
might be interested to know that many

750
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:10,330
people claiming to be water diviners

751
00:32:15,759 --> 00:32:13,250
that is to have the power to find

752
00:32:19,029 --> 00:32:15,769
underground water or metals using

753
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:19,039
divining rods or pendulums often claimed

754
00:32:25,389 --> 00:32:23,090
to be a hundred percent accurate it can

755
00:32:28,509 --> 00:32:25,399
be tricky to tell when your opponent

756
00:32:31,090 --> 00:32:28,519
sets up a straw man to burn down if you

757
00:32:33,669 --> 00:32:31,100
spot it point out that what they are

758
00:32:35,530 --> 00:32:33,679
saying is not really representative of

759
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:35,540
your point of view

760
00:32:41,710 --> 00:32:38,450
as always don't get too upset if you

761
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:41,720
miss it logical fallacies can slip by

762
00:32:52,900 --> 00:32:50,330
anyone knowing a logical fallacy when

763
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:52,910
you hear one and even knowing its name

764
00:32:59,290 --> 00:32:55,610
is important when arguing your point of

765
00:33:02,110 --> 00:32:59,300
view however you may come across as

766
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:02,120
arrogant and not get very far if you

767
00:33:08,410 --> 00:33:04,730
call it out by name to your opponent

768
00:33:10,750 --> 00:33:08,420
when you hear it being used if your

769
00:33:13,570 --> 00:33:10,760
opponent calls you out for using one

770
00:33:17,170 --> 00:33:13,580
it's time to stop and think about how

771
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:17,180
you are making your case use your

772
00:33:22,810 --> 00:33:19,490
knowledge of logical fallacies wisely

773
00:33:25,060 --> 00:33:22,820
and remember that even if your point of

774
00:33:28,090 --> 00:33:25,070
view is right and you know all the

775
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:28,100
pitfalls in arguing your case it doesn't

776
00:33:35,020 --> 00:33:31,610
always mean you'll win on the day and a

777
00:33:40,810 --> 00:33:35,030
skeptics we must also remember that we

778
00:33:42,550 --> 00:33:40,820
too can be wrong at times i'm michelle

779
00:33:51,350 --> 00:33:42,560
beakers Marv from The Vic skeptics

780
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:58,560
[Music]

781
00:34:05,140 --> 00:34:02,080
all right dr. Paulie here we've got our

782
00:34:09,250 --> 00:34:05,150
skeptic on 20/20 conference committee

783
00:34:11,109 --> 00:34:09,260
meeting so just to start off Sarah what

784
00:34:14,379 --> 00:34:11,119
remind me again what are the dates of

785
00:34:18,010 --> 00:34:14,389
our skeptic on this year 23rd to the

786
00:34:19,389 --> 00:34:18,020
25th of October 20 2001 excellent now

787
00:34:23,710 --> 00:34:19,399
that's good it's right towards the end

788
00:34:27,220 --> 00:34:23,720
of the year and Simon remind me have we

789
00:34:29,649 --> 00:34:27,230
booked a venue for skeptic on we've

790
00:34:32,500 --> 00:34:29,659
booked a fantastic venue for this year's

791
00:34:36,909 --> 00:34:32,510
conference we've got the mantra on view

792
00:34:40,659 --> 00:34:36,919
close to plenty of parking and transport

793
00:34:42,790 --> 00:34:40,669
by the Gold Coast tram service almost to

794
00:34:46,540 --> 00:34:42,800
your door next one and have you got the

795
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:46,550
the address for me around you a few

796
00:34:50,710 --> 00:34:48,290
avenues paradise

797
00:34:54,220 --> 00:34:50,720
ah fantastic I guess that's why it's

798
00:34:56,919 --> 00:34:54,230
called manager on view and encases so

799
00:34:59,470 --> 00:34:56,929
who we got books with respect to our

800
00:35:01,290 --> 00:34:59,480
speakers well it's early days but we

801
00:35:03,970 --> 00:35:01,300
have a confirmed dr. Karl from the ABC

802
00:35:07,270 --> 00:35:03,980
exam he was very keen to come along and

803
00:35:09,970 --> 00:35:07,280
our main international speakers are the

804
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:09,980
famous skeptic podcasters skeptics with

805
00:35:13,900 --> 00:35:12,290
a k' awesome what if we got all three

806
00:35:15,609 --> 00:35:13,910
coming a lot we've actually got all

807
00:35:17,490 --> 00:35:15,619
three coming along the first time that

808
00:35:19,690 --> 00:35:17,500
all three of them have come to Australia

809
00:35:20,710 --> 00:35:19,700
so coming all the way from the UK so

810
00:35:23,020 --> 00:35:20,720
that's very exciting

811
00:35:27,370 --> 00:35:23,030
ah excellent that's that's really great

812
00:35:28,740 --> 00:35:27,380
and Sarah have we got somewhere for

813
00:35:30,270 --> 00:35:28,750
people to be able to look up information

814
00:35:36,460 --> 00:35:30,280
we've got a website

815
00:35:40,900 --> 00:35:36,470
okay website is www.pevs.com slash skip

816
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:40,910
upon - 2020 great and they said our

817
00:35:45,609 --> 00:35:42,770
official website all and official

818
00:35:47,260 --> 00:35:45,619
websites toneless I fell we'll keep

819
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:47,270
working on that in the background let's

820
00:35:57,490 --> 00:35:54,220
skeptic on 2020 the Australian skeptics

821
00:36:00,310 --> 00:35:57,500
National Convention 23rd to the 25th of

822
00:36:03,790 --> 00:36:00,320
October 2020 so first Paradise

823
00:36:11,170 --> 00:36:03,800
Queensland for more information this

824
00:36:37,900 --> 00:36:11,180
wwg see skeptics calm / skeptic on -

825
00:36:49,130 --> 00:36:46,190
here's susan gerbic hello skeptic zone

826
00:36:50,930 --> 00:36:49,140
listeners it is i susan goreck here to

827
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:50,940
give you updates on her fight against

828
00:37:00,470 --> 00:36:58,430
as you know I run the amazing gso W

829
00:37:02,809 --> 00:37:00,480
project we are attempting to write

830
00:37:05,539 --> 00:37:02,819
maintain all Wikipedia pages concerning

831
00:37:08,660 --> 00:37:05,549
science and the paranormal and in all

832
00:37:10,999 --> 00:37:08,670
languages yes we know that is insane

833
00:37:13,339 --> 00:37:11,009
but still we are continuing with the

834
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:13,349
task today I'd like to tell you about

835
00:37:18,859 --> 00:37:15,450
two recent additions to English

836
00:37:22,370 --> 00:37:18,869
Wikipedia the first is Shalom house and

837
00:37:25,910 --> 00:37:22,380
that spelled sha LOM and it was written

838
00:37:27,620 --> 00:37:25,920
by gso W editor Aaron this is the first

839
00:37:31,130 --> 00:37:27,630
time I've heard of Shalom house but once

840
00:37:33,019 --> 00:37:31,140
I read Aaron's work I was like wow so

841
00:37:36,140 --> 00:37:33,029
Shalom house is located north of Perth

842
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:36,150
in Western Australia it is a Christians

843
00:37:41,990 --> 00:37:38,210
men only drug rehabilitation facility

844
00:37:44,029 --> 00:37:42,000
that was started in 2012 by a former

845
00:37:44,900 --> 00:37:44,039
meth addict and drug dealer with no

846
00:37:47,509 --> 00:37:44,910
medical training

847
00:37:49,339 --> 00:37:47,519
it's a tough love center that forces

848
00:37:51,559 --> 00:37:49,349
residents to sign a power of attorney

849
00:37:53,569 --> 00:37:51,569
over to Shalom house giving control of

850
00:37:55,309 --> 00:37:53,579
finances over to the group at the

851
00:37:57,470 --> 00:37:55,319
beginning of treatment the residents are

852
00:37:59,930 --> 00:37:57,480
not allowed cell phones books magazines

853
00:38:01,970 --> 00:37:59,940
music video and cannot leave

854
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:01,980
unaccompanied they have to work

855
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:03,690
full-time at the house and also

856
00:38:08,450 --> 00:38:05,970
volunteer at other charities they're not

857
00:38:10,009 --> 00:38:08,460
allowed to swear they do not have to be

858
00:38:12,049 --> 00:38:10,019
religious to attend but they have to

859
00:38:14,599 --> 00:38:12,059
study the Bible and attend Christian

860
00:38:17,299 --> 00:38:14,609
services our doctor visits once a week

861
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:17,309
but there's no doctor on-site Shaolin

862
00:38:20,839 --> 00:38:19,170
does not keep statistics and people who

863
00:38:23,089 --> 00:38:20,849
leave the program are not tracked to see

864
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:23,099
if they relapse the reason they do not

865
00:38:27,259 --> 00:38:24,930
keep track of statistics is because they

866
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:27,269
are quote not trying to prove anything

867
00:38:33,319 --> 00:38:30,930
unquote a journalist named Sarah Brooks

868
00:38:35,089 --> 00:38:33,329
keep in mind Australian skeptics for a

869
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:35,099
possible Barry Williams award for good

870
00:38:38,569 --> 00:38:36,690
journalism Sarah

871
00:38:40,670 --> 00:38:38,579
Brooks writing for the community news

872
00:38:43,099 --> 00:38:40,680
group did an investigation and found

873
00:38:45,380 --> 00:38:43,109
that of approximately a thousand men

874
00:38:48,230 --> 00:38:45,390
that entered the program only 49

875
00:38:50,839 --> 00:38:48,240
completed it which is a success rate of

876
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:50,849
under five percent the average rate of

877
00:38:56,450 --> 00:38:54,170
publicly funded services is 35 percent

878
00:38:58,670 --> 00:38:56,460
residents were required to sign up for a

879
00:39:00,230 --> 00:38:58,680
year but the journalist discovered in

880
00:39:02,390 --> 00:39:00,240
some cases people were still in

881
00:39:05,059 --> 00:39:02,400
treatment three years later the average

882
00:39:08,420 --> 00:39:05,069
time for publicly funded services is one

883
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:08,430
to three months what Erin the GSO W

884
00:39:10,580 --> 00:39:09,090
editor does

885
00:39:14,630 --> 00:39:10,590
covered is that Shalom house has

886
00:39:17,090 --> 00:39:14,640
received two awards one in 2017 from the

887
00:39:20,090 --> 00:39:17,100
Telstra Western Australian charity and

888
00:39:22,850 --> 00:39:20,100
in 2019 a non profit of the Year award

889
00:39:24,650 --> 00:39:22,860
from my business awards what Erin

890
00:39:27,350 --> 00:39:24,660
discovered that prior cheese rewrite of

891
00:39:29,240 --> 00:39:27,360
the Wikipedia page someone editing with

892
00:39:31,340 --> 00:39:29,250
the username Shalom house I've been

893
00:39:33,470 --> 00:39:31,350
editing the Wikipedia page it was

894
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:33,480
complete fluff until Erin got involved

895
00:39:38,570 --> 00:39:35,810
and rewrote the entire Wikipedia page

896
00:39:41,110 --> 00:39:38,580
and now I'm going to quote something

897
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:41,120
Erin wrote in the GSO W secret cabal

898
00:39:46,310 --> 00:39:44,490
quote what I'm coming to appreciate more

899
00:39:48,860 --> 00:39:46,320
and more about Wikipedia is the ability

900
00:39:52,130 --> 00:39:48,870
to have all of the relevant information

901
00:39:53,930 --> 00:39:52,140
on one page it took me ages to find all

902
00:39:56,540 --> 00:39:53,940
the articles I use for the Shalom house

903
00:39:58,190 --> 00:39:56,550
page far more time than Joe average

904
00:40:00,920 --> 00:39:58,200
would put into finding out about it an

905
00:40:03,020 --> 00:40:00,930
organization meaning all of the nasty

906
00:40:05,150 --> 00:40:03,030
stuff slips through the cracks and goes

907
00:40:06,710 --> 00:40:05,160
unnoticed I wonder if they would have

908
00:40:08,690 --> 00:40:06,720
won the awards they did if the judges

909
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:08,700
had access to the information I've

910
00:40:14,330 --> 00:40:11,490
posted now Joe average gets full

911
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:14,340
disclosure with one click but what

912
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:15,810
really makes me happy is knowing that

913
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:17,490
there are going to be parents of addicts

914
00:40:21,410 --> 00:40:19,410
who will now avoid Shalom house and

915
00:40:25,910 --> 00:40:21,420
hopefully get effective treatment

916
00:40:27,860 --> 00:40:25,920
instead unquote congratulations Erin so

917
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:27,870
the next Wikipedia page is dealing with

918
00:40:32,990 --> 00:40:29,370
a story I'm sure you've all read about

919
00:40:34,220 --> 00:40:33,000
on social media a few weeks ago do you

920
00:40:35,590 --> 00:40:34,230
remember the four year old that was

921
00:40:38,060 --> 00:40:35,600
really sick with the flu and

922
00:40:39,740 --> 00:40:38,070
experiencing seizures and the mother

923
00:40:42,260 --> 00:40:39,750
reached out to a Facebook group for

924
00:40:45,260 --> 00:40:42,270
advice they told her to use breast milk

925
00:40:48,050 --> 00:40:45,270
time and elderberry the child was later

926
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:48,060
hospitalized and died the Facebook group

927
00:40:52,820 --> 00:40:50,610
is run by Larry cook who is anti vaccine

928
00:40:55,820 --> 00:40:52,830
and has no medical training

929
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:55,830
he is funded by no donations and t-shirt

930
00:41:01,520 --> 00:40:58,130
and book sales he raised more than

931
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:01,530
$100,000 on a GoFundMe campaign he also

932
00:41:07,370 --> 00:41:03,690
recommends anti vaccine literature and

933
00:41:08,750 --> 00:41:07,380
receives the cuts of those sales so

934
00:41:10,550 --> 00:41:08,760
while the story was all over social

935
00:41:12,470 --> 00:41:10,560
media and people were outraged over the

936
00:41:14,570 --> 00:41:12,480
death of this child and complaining that

937
00:41:17,930 --> 00:41:14,580
Facebook should not allow this kind of

938
00:41:21,050 --> 00:41:17,940
nonsense gso w editor Robin Canton

939
00:41:22,940 --> 00:41:21,060
decided he wanted to take action in a

940
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:22,950
few days he had done his research

941
00:41:27,140 --> 00:41:24,690
and published a brand-new Wikipedia page

942
00:41:28,910 --> 00:41:27,150
for everyone to find the media often

943
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:28,920
does not have the time to do the

944
00:41:32,900 --> 00:41:31,290
research and with a well-written

945
00:41:34,819 --> 00:41:32,910
Wikipedia page they can review the

946
00:41:36,650 --> 00:41:34,829
citations that Robin left them to find

947
00:41:39,829 --> 00:41:36,660
so they can fully understand this group

948
00:41:43,609 --> 00:41:39,839
which is called stop mandatory

949
00:41:46,609 --> 00:41:43,619
vaccinations yes that is his name and it

950
00:41:48,410 --> 00:41:46,619
also has a website the Facebook page has

951
00:41:52,790 --> 00:41:48,420
over a hundred and seventy eight

952
00:41:55,490 --> 00:41:52,800
thousand members folks we have a lot of

953
00:41:57,380 --> 00:41:55,500
work to do if you're a sick and tired of

954
00:41:58,550 --> 00:41:57,390
this nonsense and are hoping to learn

955
00:42:01,339 --> 00:41:58,560
how to fight back

956
00:42:03,410 --> 00:42:01,349
please join us training takes a few

957
00:42:06,140 --> 00:42:03,420
months but you finish at your own pace

958
00:42:09,050 --> 00:42:06,150
once trained you can contribute so much

959
00:42:10,970 --> 00:42:09,060
more than outrage on social media what

960
00:42:13,609 --> 00:42:10,980
are you waiting for we are waiting for

961
00:42:15,170 --> 00:42:13,619
you approached me on Facebook and I'll

962
00:42:16,790 --> 00:42:15,180
give you a pre training assignment to

963
00:42:17,329 --> 00:42:16,800
complete to give you an idea of what to

964
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:17,339
expect

965
00:42:21,710 --> 00:42:19,890
if after completing that you decide to

966
00:42:24,020 --> 00:42:21,720
continue with training you will join

967
00:42:26,540 --> 00:42:24,030
your peers and the secret cabal located

968
00:42:29,260 --> 00:42:26,550
in a private Facebook group now how

969
00:42:32,470 --> 00:42:29,270
often do you get to join an actual cabal

970
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:32,480
thanks everyone

971
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:45,780
skeptics cafe is held on the third

972
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:48,010
Monday of every month at the Dan

973
00:42:54,030 --> 00:42:50,890
O'Connell Hotel in Melbourne on Monday

974
00:42:56,819 --> 00:42:54,040
March 16th Chris guest president of the

975
00:42:59,280 --> 00:42:56,829
Vic skeptics examines the curious career

976
00:43:03,180 --> 00:42:59,290
of the acclaimed archaeologist James

977
00:43:05,940 --> 00:43:03,190
mallet in the middle of the 20th century

978
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:05,950
mallet changed our understanding of the

979
00:43:10,950 --> 00:43:08,410
Neolithic period in Anatolia with

980
00:43:14,849 --> 00:43:10,960
amazing discoveries at Hajj Allah and

981
00:43:17,010 --> 00:43:14,859
Charlton who yuck controversies abounded

982
00:43:20,250 --> 00:43:17,020
when he documented the doric treasure

983
00:43:23,490 --> 00:43:20,260
the baker inscription and discovered a

984
00:43:26,190 --> 00:43:23,500
continuity of fabric designs dating from

985
00:43:29,309 --> 00:43:26,200
the neolithic era to modern times in

986
00:43:32,609 --> 00:43:29,319
Turkey for more information see the

987
00:43:37,130 --> 00:43:32,619
skeptics cafe Facebook page or the Vic

988
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:37,140
skeptics website app vic skeptics

989
00:43:54,390 --> 00:43:40,690
wordpress.com slash events

990
00:44:07,390 --> 00:43:54,400
[Music]

991
00:44:09,100 --> 00:44:07,400
life is wild with Michelle Franklin hi

992
00:44:11,230 --> 00:44:09,110
guys I just wanted to give you a heads

993
00:44:13,090 --> 00:44:11,240
up that the sound quality of my report

994
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:13,100
might be a bit off this week we're

995
00:44:17,170 --> 00:44:14,930
finally getting some much-needed rain in

996
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:17,180
the north and it's woken up some of the

997
00:44:21,910 --> 00:44:18,530
creatures that are usually a bit more

998
00:44:23,860 --> 00:44:21,920
quiet so my apologies but I'm sure you

999
00:44:27,910 --> 00:44:23,870
won't mind a few background insects and

1000
00:44:29,770 --> 00:44:27,920
maybe the occasional frog chorus today I

1001
00:44:32,980 --> 00:44:29,780
want to talk to you about invasive

1002
00:44:35,770 --> 00:44:32,990
species which means any organism that is

1003
00:44:38,020 --> 00:44:35,780
moved to a new location and which

1004
00:44:40,180 --> 00:44:38,030
possesses traits that allow it to then

1005
00:44:43,570 --> 00:44:40,190
invade and move into new areas

1006
00:44:44,890 --> 00:44:43,580
unassisted and in this context I'm also

1007
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:44,900
going to include the factor that it

1008
00:44:50,910 --> 00:44:47,610
causes harm in the new environment

1009
00:44:53,620 --> 00:44:50,920
[Music]

1010
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:53,630
now before I get too far into this I

1011
00:44:58,510 --> 00:44:55,850
need to acknowledge that we are an

1012
00:45:00,220 --> 00:44:58,520
invasive species and we've spread across

1013
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:00,230
the planet and caused a lot of damage so

1014
00:45:05,170 --> 00:45:01,610
that's just something that we're going

1015
00:45:07,810 --> 00:45:05,180
to have to accept but accepting that an

1016
00:45:09,370 --> 00:45:07,820
invasive species here doesn't mean that

1017
00:45:11,770 --> 00:45:09,380
we have to accept the damage that it

1018
00:45:14,290 --> 00:45:11,780
will cause in the future we can and do

1019
00:45:16,240 --> 00:45:14,300
with varying levels of success take

1020
00:45:18,910 --> 00:45:16,250
steps to try to reduce the impact that

1021
00:45:21,910 --> 00:45:18,920
humans have on the world we exclude

1022
00:45:23,980 --> 00:45:21,920
people from vulnerable areas and we

1023
00:45:26,110 --> 00:45:23,990
place restrictions on human activities

1024
00:45:28,660 --> 00:45:26,120
to reduce impacts like polluting and

1025
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:28,670
over consuming resources and in some

1026
00:45:34,780 --> 00:45:30,650
places we even try to reduce population

1027
00:45:37,240 --> 00:45:34,790
growth by limiting reproduction it's the

1028
00:45:40,660 --> 00:45:37,250
same when we manage invasive animals and

1029
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:40,670
plants we may have to accept that some

1030
00:45:44,860 --> 00:45:42,290
of them are here to stay and we can't

1031
00:45:46,540 --> 00:45:44,870
get rid of them all but just because we

1032
00:45:48,010 --> 00:45:46,550
can't prevent something entirely it

1033
00:45:50,650 --> 00:45:48,020
doesn't mean we shouldn't try to reduce

1034
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:50,660
the harm invasive species have done a

1035
00:45:54,460 --> 00:45:52,490
lot of damage throughout history and

1036
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:54,470
there are a lot of them out there but it

1037
00:45:58,330 --> 00:45:56,570
doesn't mean we should just give up and

1038
00:46:00,730 --> 00:45:58,340
accept the situation because there's a

1039
00:46:04,090 --> 00:46:00,740
lot more damage left to be done and we

1040
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:04,100
can prevent some of it the example that

1041
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:06,650
I want to use today is horses in

1042
00:46:10,990 --> 00:46:09,530
Kosciusko National Park and the reason

1043
00:46:13,090 --> 00:46:11,000
that I want to use this example is

1044
00:46:15,460 --> 00:46:13,100
because it demonstrates how invasive

1045
00:46:18,700 --> 00:46:15,470
species can change the dynamic of an

1046
00:46:21,580 --> 00:46:18,710
ecosystem and how it responds to major

1047
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:21,590
disturbance horses have been in

1048
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:24,890
Australia for 230 years and for about a

1049
00:46:28,750 --> 00:46:26,810
hundred and sixty of those years they've

1050
00:46:32,230 --> 00:46:28,760
been recognized as a feral invasive

1051
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:32,240
species there was a time when we relied

1052
00:46:36,550 --> 00:46:34,130
on the horses through pioneer and

1053
00:46:38,650 --> 00:46:36,560
Explorer days through Wars and fires and

1054
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:38,660
droughts and of course they're beautiful

1055
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:41,330
and charismatic and fun to ride so who

1056
00:46:46,020 --> 00:46:43,130
can blame us for adopting them into our

1057
00:46:49,630 --> 00:46:46,030
culture and writing poems about them

1058
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:49,640
also for context about a third of

1059
00:46:53,290 --> 00:46:51,650
Kosciusko National Park has recently

1060
00:46:54,730 --> 00:46:53,300
burned in the devastating bush fires

1061
00:46:58,990 --> 00:46:54,740
that ripped through the southern parts

1062
00:47:00,120 --> 00:46:59,000
of Australia now fires not necessarily a

1063
00:47:02,710 --> 00:47:00,130
bad thing

1064
00:47:03,790 --> 00:47:02,720
ecosystems rely on intermittent small

1065
00:47:06,550 --> 00:47:03,800
disturbances

1066
00:47:08,590 --> 00:47:06,560
to maintain their biodiversity when

1067
00:47:10,750 --> 00:47:08,600
there's no disturbance the strongest and

1068
00:47:12,970 --> 00:47:10,760
most dominant species out-compete the

1069
00:47:15,550 --> 00:47:12,980
others and the less competitive pioneer

1070
00:47:18,370 --> 00:47:15,560
species don't have any room to grow if

1071
00:47:20,110 --> 00:47:18,380
there's too much disturbance however it

1072
00:47:22,390 --> 00:47:20,120
might knock out all the species at the

1073
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:22,400
same time the balance of an ecosystem

1074
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:24,530
relies on intermittent small

1075
00:47:28,660 --> 00:47:26,570
disturbances which knock back the

1076
00:47:31,390 --> 00:47:28,670
dominant species without removing them

1077
00:47:34,930 --> 00:47:31,400
all and makes room for pioneer species

1078
00:47:38,020 --> 00:47:34,940
to spread and breed it's a constant

1079
00:47:40,060 --> 00:47:38,030
fluctuation between competitive dominant

1080
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:40,070
species and invasive pioneer species

1081
00:47:45,490 --> 00:47:42,290
with the end result that we have a

1082
00:47:47,770 --> 00:47:45,500
biodiverse environment with a range of

1083
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:47,780
species that can thrive in a wide range

1084
00:47:53,590 --> 00:47:50,570
of conditions this biodiversity or

1085
00:47:56,580 --> 00:47:53,600
diverse range of life is what gives an

1086
00:47:59,860 --> 00:47:56,590
ecosystem its resilience against change

1087
00:48:02,680 --> 00:47:59,870
if all the animals or plants were the

1088
00:48:05,020 --> 00:48:02,690
same and only adapted to one specific

1089
00:48:07,180 --> 00:48:05,030
set of conditions that is present at the

1090
00:48:09,130 --> 00:48:07,190
moment then when a fire or something

1091
00:48:11,730 --> 00:48:09,140
like that does happen it would have the

1092
00:48:14,650 --> 00:48:11,740
potential to knock out the entire system

1093
00:48:17,860 --> 00:48:14,660
small disturbances often come in the

1094
00:48:20,770 --> 00:48:17,870
form of fires and or floods and when

1095
00:48:22,630 --> 00:48:20,780
this disturbance subsides there's space

1096
00:48:25,060 --> 00:48:22,640
left in the landscape for the pioneer

1097
00:48:27,700 --> 00:48:25,070
species to take hold for a while and the

1098
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:27,710
ecosystem can recover and start another

1099
00:48:33,310 --> 00:48:30,890
cycle but if the disturbance is too big

1100
00:48:35,170 --> 00:48:33,320
or if you add in multiple disturbances

1101
00:48:38,110 --> 00:48:35,180
close together like a bad fire season

1102
00:48:40,500 --> 00:48:38,120
followed by flooding in those cases the

1103
00:48:43,150 --> 00:48:40,510
recovery can be difficult and slow and

1104
00:48:45,240 --> 00:48:43,160
this can also be impacted by an

1105
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:45,250
ever-increasing large invasive

1106
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:48,050
population of heavy hard hoofed and high

1107
00:48:53,590 --> 00:48:51,890
consuming herbivores in 2014 horse

1108
00:48:55,990 --> 00:48:53,600
numbers in the whole of the Australian

1109
00:48:58,660 --> 00:48:56,000
Alps were estimated to be a little over

1110
00:49:01,420 --> 00:48:58,670
nine thousand of which six thousand were

1111
00:49:03,910 --> 00:49:01,430
in the Kosciuszko National Park at that

1112
00:49:05,890 --> 00:49:03,920
time the Kosciusko National Park plan of

1113
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:05,900
management provided the legal guidance

1114
00:49:10,420 --> 00:49:08,210
for the management of feral horses and

1115
00:49:12,580 --> 00:49:10,430
it required the distribution and

1116
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:12,590
abundance of feral horses to be reduced

1117
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:14,690
and populations to be eradicated were

1118
00:49:20,830 --> 00:49:17,690
over feasible aerial surveys were

1119
00:49:22,750 --> 00:49:20,840
he did in 2019 and they found that the

1120
00:49:26,100 --> 00:49:22,760
total number of horses in the Alps had

1121
00:49:29,590 --> 00:49:26,110
actually increased to over 25,000 with

1122
00:49:31,630 --> 00:49:29,600
19,000 in Kosciusko this came shortly

1123
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:31,640
after the Kosciusko wild horse heritage

1124
00:49:36,100 --> 00:49:34,490
bill came into effect in 2018 for the

1125
00:49:38,470 --> 00:49:36,110
purpose of establishing a wild horse

1126
00:49:40,230 --> 00:49:38,480
heritage management plan which will

1127
00:49:42,910 --> 00:49:40,240
identify the heritage value of

1128
00:49:45,190 --> 00:49:42,920
sustainable wild horse populations and

1129
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:45,200
set out how that heritage value will be

1130
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:48,410
protected keeping in mind that horses

1131
00:49:53,500 --> 00:49:51,170
are big most of them are fast enough to

1132
00:49:55,150 --> 00:49:53,510
run away when fires approach and there's

1133
00:49:56,890 --> 00:49:55,160
a reasonable chance that their numbers

1134
00:49:59,680 --> 00:49:56,900
are still at about this same level

1135
00:50:01,320 --> 00:49:59,690
following the recent fires many of them

1136
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:01,330
are now likely to be starving to death

1137
00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:03,650
this means that when they've consumed

1138
00:50:08,020 --> 00:50:05,570
all the resources that are left in their

1139
00:50:10,540 --> 00:50:08,030
regular home range they'll move out in

1140
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:10,550
search of new habitats within the

1141
00:50:14,350 --> 00:50:12,410
already devastated ecosystems of

1142
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:14,360
Kosciusko National Park that are trying

1143
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:16,850
to recover now as an example consider

1144
00:50:21,100 --> 00:50:18,650
the northern corroboree frog a

1145
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:21,110
critically endangered native frog that

1146
00:50:25,330 --> 00:50:23,090
lives in the few remaining delicates

1147
00:50:28,150 --> 00:50:25,340
Magnum bog habitats in the Kosciusko

1148
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:28,160
National Park they were on the brink of

1149
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:29,810
destruction already due to climate

1150
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:30,290
change

1151
00:50:34,150 --> 00:50:32,330
feral animal impacts and most

1152
00:50:36,010 --> 00:50:34,160
significantly the devastating effects of

1153
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:36,020
the kidron fungus which has all but

1154
00:50:41,050 --> 00:50:38,930
wiped them out wild populations were

1155
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:41,060
estimated to be less than 50 individuals

1156
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:43,010
at one point but captive breeding

1157
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:45,170
programs combined with small-scale horse

1158
00:50:51,220 --> 00:50:47,930
exclusion fencing has had some success

1159
00:50:52,420 --> 00:50:51,230
in recovering their numbers the New

1160
00:50:55,060 --> 00:50:52,430
South Wales threatened species

1161
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:55,070
scientific committee has listed habitat

1162
00:50:58,930 --> 00:50:56,930
degradation and loss caused by feral

1163
00:51:00,490 --> 00:50:58,940
horses as a key threatening process

1164
00:51:02,860 --> 00:51:00,500
under schedule four of the New South

1165
00:51:05,110 --> 00:51:02,870
Wales biodiversity conservation Act

1166
00:51:07,390 --> 00:51:05,120
these horses are destroying many of the

1167
00:51:10,450 --> 00:51:07,400
bog communities which are not evolved to

1168
00:51:12,250 --> 00:51:10,460
cope with heavy hard hoofed animals the

1169
00:51:14,170 --> 00:51:12,260
horses are stirring up sediment and

1170
00:51:16,660 --> 00:51:14,180
defecating in the precious remaining

1171
00:51:19,090 --> 00:51:16,670
water the hooves are compacting soils

1172
00:51:21,670 --> 00:51:19,100
causing erosion and vegetation loss in

1173
00:51:23,410 --> 00:51:21,680
the soft grounds and creek lines and now

1174
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:23,420
they're also starving to death over

1175
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:25,130
consuming the limited remaining

1176
00:51:30,100 --> 00:51:27,410
resources and spreading out to invade

1177
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:30,110
new areas what happens when this now

1178
00:51:34,089 --> 00:51:30,890
protector

1179
00:51:36,069 --> 00:51:34,099
and hungry population of horses moves

1180
00:51:38,769 --> 00:51:36,079
into the last remnants of suitable

1181
00:51:40,390 --> 00:51:38,779
corroboree frog habitat creates erosion

1182
00:51:42,789 --> 00:51:40,400
and runoff channels which drain the

1183
00:51:44,740 --> 00:51:42,799
swamplands tramples and destroys the

1184
00:51:47,170 --> 00:51:44,750
Spagna moss and other vegetation that

1185
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:47,180
the frogs require for nesting and forces

1186
00:51:51,519 --> 00:51:49,130
them to lay their eggs in areas that put

1187
00:51:53,259 --> 00:51:51,529
them at risk of desiccation undermining

1188
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:53,269
the significant efforts that have gone

1189
00:51:57,250 --> 00:51:55,010
into breeding and reintroducing them

1190
00:51:59,200 --> 00:51:57,260
into the wild what's even the point of

1191
00:52:01,839 --> 00:51:59,210
having protected areas such as Kosciusko

1192
00:52:04,779 --> 00:52:01,849
National Park if we legislate to allow

1193
00:52:06,730 --> 00:52:04,789
it to be overrun with a feral invasive

1194
00:52:09,309 --> 00:52:06,740
species which is recognized as a key

1195
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:09,319
threatening process and what's the point

1196
00:52:12,730 --> 00:52:10,970
of having breeding programs for our

1197
00:52:14,589 --> 00:52:12,740
critically endangered native animals

1198
00:52:16,750 --> 00:52:14,599
well we won't protect the few remaining

1199
00:52:19,990 --> 00:52:16,760
places that we have left to release them

1200
00:52:21,759 --> 00:52:20,000
so the situation right now is that there

1201
00:52:24,220 --> 00:52:21,769
are a lot of highly disturbed and

1202
00:52:25,990 --> 00:52:24,230
vulnerable ecosystems out there with

1203
00:52:28,539 --> 00:52:26,000
reduced numbers of endangered and

1204
00:52:30,609 --> 00:52:28,549
critically endangered species those who

1205
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:30,619
managed to survive the fires so far are

1206
00:52:34,450 --> 00:52:32,690
now competing with large numbers of

1207
00:52:36,990 --> 00:52:34,460
protected horses that are moving through

1208
00:52:40,180 --> 00:52:37,000
the landscape and destroying as they go

1209
00:52:41,769 --> 00:52:40,190
so the situation right now is that there

1210
00:52:43,930 --> 00:52:41,779
are a lot of highly disturbed and

1211
00:52:45,609 --> 00:52:43,940
vulnerable ecosystems out there with

1212
00:52:48,609 --> 00:52:45,619
reduced numbers of endangered and

1213
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:48,619
critically endangered species those who

1214
00:52:52,660 --> 00:52:50,930
managed to survive the fires so far and

1215
00:52:54,609 --> 00:52:52,670
now competing with large numbers of

1216
00:52:56,380 --> 00:52:54,619
protected horses that are moving through

1217
00:53:00,819 --> 00:52:56,390
the landscape consuming and destroying

1218
00:53:03,430 --> 00:53:00,829
as they go so what's the answer we can

1219
00:53:05,529 --> 00:53:03,440
build food stations and shelters for the

1220
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:05,539
endangered species but what's to stop

1221
00:53:09,670 --> 00:53:07,490
the horses from capitalizing on these

1222
00:53:12,519 --> 00:53:09,680
resources and can continuing to

1223
00:53:14,319 --> 00:53:12,529
out-compete the smaller animals wild

1224
00:53:16,839 --> 00:53:14,329
harvested horses was used in the past

1225
00:53:19,900 --> 00:53:16,849
and it can take some animals out of the

1226
00:53:22,690 --> 00:53:19,910
wild and make use of them sterilization

1227
00:53:25,180 --> 00:53:22,700
is another option but like wild harvest

1228
00:53:28,930 --> 00:53:25,190
it it's a slow and expensive and

1229
00:53:31,749 --> 00:53:28,940
relatively small-scale solution aerial

1230
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:31,759
culling is a real and viable option and

1231
00:53:37,359 --> 00:53:34,130
many have supported that since long

1232
00:53:39,039 --> 00:53:37,369
before this most recent fire event it's

1233
00:53:42,460 --> 00:53:39,049
able to be deployed at a much broader

1234
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:42,470
scale than live harvest or sterilization

1235
00:53:48,130 --> 00:53:45,490
and it's significantly more cost of

1236
00:53:50,830 --> 00:53:48,140
the good news is that since I wrote this

1237
00:53:52,570 --> 00:53:50,840
report a month ago I've now learned that

1238
00:53:54,730 --> 00:53:52,580
the New South Wales National Parks and

1239
00:53:56,710 --> 00:53:54,740
Wildlife Service plans to remove up to

1240
00:53:59,560 --> 00:53:56,720
four thousand horses from the most

1241
00:54:01,840 --> 00:53:59,570
sensitive areas of Kosciusko in my

1242
00:54:04,180 --> 00:54:01,850
opinion that's a really good start

1243
00:54:07,750 --> 00:54:04,190
although four thousand out of nineteen

1244
00:54:10,300 --> 00:54:07,760
thousand is not a big portion of them

1245
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:10,310
and I'm worried about how long it'll

1246
00:54:15,790 --> 00:54:12,530
take if they try to catch everyone alive

1247
00:54:17,260 --> 00:54:15,800
and remove it will they be helped do it

1248
00:54:21,310 --> 00:54:17,270
in time for it to make much difference

1249
00:54:23,260 --> 00:54:21,320
to the frogs and remember that horses

1250
00:54:25,660 --> 00:54:23,270
are just one example that I chose to

1251
00:54:28,300 --> 00:54:25,670
demonstrate this point multiplied this

1252
00:54:30,550 --> 00:54:28,310
impact out to all the invasive species

1253
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:30,560
that we have in this country and try to

1254
00:54:35,830 --> 00:54:32,290
imagine the impact on our unique

1255
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:35,840
ecosystems of deer and goats pigs

1256
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:39,770
rabbits cats foxes dogs donkeys camels

1257
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:43,010
buffalo toads and all the different fish

1258
00:54:48,010 --> 00:54:45,050
and birds and insects and plants as well

1259
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:48,020
as human activity and of course horses

1260
00:54:52,780 --> 00:54:49,970
so when you see arguments around

1261
00:54:55,300 --> 00:54:52,790
ecosystem management ask yourself how do

1262
00:54:56,950 --> 00:54:55,310
you think we should best proceed keeping

1263
00:54:59,230 --> 00:54:56,960
in mind the potential that these

1264
00:55:01,720 --> 00:54:59,240
invasive species have to impact on our

1265
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:01,730
ecosystems in the event of all the major

1266
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:03,410
disturbances that will come in the

1267
00:55:21,670 --> 00:55:04,770
future

1268
00:55:26,810 --> 00:55:24,080
thank you for listening to the skeptic

1269
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:26,820
zone next week it's the welcome return

1270
00:55:31,970 --> 00:55:30,450
of the book of Tim Tim Mendham only

1271
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:31,980
dropped by the studio the other day to

1272
00:55:35,780 --> 00:55:34,170
record some more book of Tim we're going

1273
00:55:39,710 --> 00:55:35,790
to kick off with a three-part story

1274
00:55:43,730 --> 00:55:39,720
about water divining about well in order

1275
00:55:45,380 --> 00:55:43,740
to 2013 a major water divining test so

1276
00:55:48,140 --> 00:55:45,390
that's a bit of gold fashioned

1277
00:55:51,370 --> 00:55:48,150
skepticism also next week more from

1278
00:55:54,140 --> 00:55:51,380
skeptic on 2019 with Maynard and

1279
00:55:58,970 --> 00:55:54,150
undoubtedly something covering the

1280
00:56:02,030 --> 00:55:58,980
current worldwide situation despite

1281
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:02,040
these challenging times that face us all

1282
00:56:06,470 --> 00:56:04,170
I still appreciate very much and still

1283
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:06,480
vital to the skeptic zone that people

1284
00:56:12,050 --> 00:56:10,050
keep contributing with PayPal or patreon

1285
00:56:13,730 --> 00:56:12,060
maybe the skeptic zone is a welcome

1286
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:13,740
relief from some of the news going

1287
00:56:17,510 --> 00:56:15,690
around at the moment maybe it's still

1288
00:56:20,030 --> 00:56:17,520
keeping you company on your walks or

1289
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:20,040
your long drives or your commute I'm

1290
00:56:26,420 --> 00:56:23,970
very grateful for everybody who

1291
00:56:28,460 --> 00:56:26,430
contributes to the skeptic zone and I've

1292
00:56:31,550 --> 00:56:28,470
said this for years and it's true

1293
00:56:33,530 --> 00:56:31,560
without your support there would be no

1294
00:56:36,770 --> 00:56:33,540
skeptic zone as simple as that so thank

1295
00:56:41,150 --> 00:56:36,780
you very much go to WWE peg zone TV and

1296
00:56:43,550 --> 00:56:41,160
click the patreon link in fact I'll tell

1297
00:56:45,349 --> 00:56:43,560
you that one of the consequences of the

1298
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:45,359
worldwide situation at the moment is the

1299
00:56:52,220 --> 00:56:49,010
Australian dollar continues to dive and

1300
00:56:54,410 --> 00:56:52,230
which means that if you're contributing

1301
00:56:57,400 --> 00:56:54,420
to the show from the United States in US

1302
00:57:00,920 --> 00:56:57,410
dollars on patreon or PayPal your

1303
00:57:03,260 --> 00:57:00,930
contribution suddenly is worth a lot

1304
00:57:06,230 --> 00:57:03,270
more I think the dollar is hovering

1305
00:57:07,820 --> 00:57:06,240
around 62 cents at the moment so if

1306
00:57:09,890 --> 00:57:07,830
you're chipping in for five dollars a

1307
00:57:13,070 --> 00:57:09,900
week that five dollars magically

1308
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:13,080
transformed into almost 10 but for this

1309
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:15,090
week this is Richard Saunders wishing

1310
00:57:21,980 --> 00:57:17,250
you all very well signing off from

1311
00:57:27,380 --> 00:57:24,480
you've been listening to the skeptic

1312
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:27,390
zone podcast please visit our website at

1313
00:57:37,580 --> 00:57:34,090
wwlp.com tax and to access the bat

1314
00:57:40,230 --> 00:57:37,590
catalog of episodes going back to 2008

1315
00:57:43,530 --> 00:57:40,240
you can follow the skeptic zone podcast

1316
00:57:45,810 --> 00:57:43,540
on twitter at skeptic zone visit our

1317
00:57:49,170 --> 00:57:45,820
facebook page or leave a review on

1318
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:49,180
itunes you can also support the skeptic

1319
00:57:54,900 --> 00:57:52,570
zone via patreon or PayPal the skeptic

1320
00:57:56,850 --> 00:57:54,910
zone podcast is an independent

1321
00:57:59,070 --> 00:57:56,860
production reviews and opinions

1322
00:58:01,200 --> 00:57:59,080
expressed on the skeptic zone are not

1323
00:58:04,140 --> 00:58:01,210
necessarily those of Australian skeptics

1324
00:58:17,060 --> 00:58:04,150
or any other skeptical organisation

1325
00:58:22,890 --> 00:58:20,540
hello people who listen after the music

1326
00:58:26,300 --> 00:58:22,900
let's play the dice game so wash your

1327
00:58:28,260 --> 00:58:26,310
hands I think that's the advice to do

1328
00:58:29,820 --> 00:58:28,270
whatever we're doing these days wash

1329
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:29,830
your hands and we'll play the dice game

1330
00:58:35,580 --> 00:58:31,930
for those who don't you know I roll a 10

1331
00:58:37,260 --> 00:58:35,590
sided die three times and you use your

1332
00:58:39,450 --> 00:58:37,270
psychic powers or your dumb luck or

1333
00:58:40,950 --> 00:58:39,460
whatever the hell you want to do some

1334
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:40,960
people actually have skeptic zone

1335
00:58:46,470 --> 00:58:43,810
10-sided dice when I'm giving talks and

1336
00:58:49,500 --> 00:58:46,480
I'm out and about I I wash my hands and

1337
00:58:51,420 --> 00:58:49,510
I give people I give people souvenir

1338
00:58:54,060 --> 00:58:51,430
10-sided dice so they can play along so

1339
00:58:56,010 --> 00:58:54,070
if you're one of those people let's play

1340
00:59:01,800 --> 00:58:56,020
along here we go the first number this

1341
00:59:04,170 --> 00:59:01,810
week is seven now I don't have a skeptic

1342
00:59:05,730 --> 00:59:04,180
zone pen I should maybe I should when

1343
00:59:07,620 --> 00:59:05,740
this is all over you know

1344
00:59:08,820 --> 00:59:07,630
remember that seven class usually write

1345
00:59:14,340 --> 00:59:08,830
it down but it seemed to be painless

1346
00:59:16,910 --> 00:59:14,350
right and the next number four seven and

1347
00:59:21,420 --> 00:59:16,920
four okay guess the last one here we go